New Insights on Excess Deaths and COVID-19
Abstract
Background
Weinberger and colleagues estimated that 27,065 of the 122,300 excess deaths in the United States between March 1 and May 30, 2020 did not have a COVID-19 cause of death.
Methods
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) post weekly data on mortality for 13 causes of death from the most prevalent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was listed as a cause of death. The 2015-2019 data for weeks 10 through 22 were used to forecast the number of deaths from the 13 causes in the absence of COVID-19 during 2020. The forecast was subtracted from the observed number of deaths for each cause during the period March 1 to May 30, 2020.
Results
The total of the differences for each of the 13 causes of death, 18,489 deaths, accounts for over two-thirds of the 27,065 excess deaths not due to COVID-19.
Conclusion
Combining the 95,235 reported COVID-19 deaths with the 18,489 from the 13 most frequent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was a cause suggests that as many as 93% of the excess deaths were due to COVID-19 and implies that COVID-19 deaths were undercounted. Ongoing assessment of excess deaths and causes of death is needed to provide a better understanding of the pandemic’s dynamics.
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