Non-COVID-19 deaths in the United States during the imposition of sheltering-in-place

Public debate over imposed sheltering-in-place in the United States (US) includes the claim that non-COVID-19 deaths increased above those expected from history and from such deaths in Sweden. We test this claim by applying Box-Jenkins transfer function modeling to weekly deaths between December 29, 2013 and May 16, 2020 in the US and Sweden. In the eight weeks of imposed sheltering-in-place in the US – assumed begun in the week of March 22 – an average of 715 fewer non-COVID-19 deaths (95% CI: −1428, −2) occurred per week implying a total of 5720 less than expected from those in Sweden and from history. Results changed little (i.e., 5472 fewer deaths than expected) when we excluded deaths in New York City. Contrary to speculation, non-COVID-19 mortality appeared to decline in the US after shelter-in-place orders.