Impact Assessment of Full and Partial Stay-at-Home Orders, Face Mask Usage, and Contact Tracing: An Agent-Based Simulation Study of COVID-19 for an Urban Region
Abstract
Purpose
Various social intervention strategies to mitigate COVID-19 are examined using a comprehensive agent-based simulation model. A case study is conducted using a large urban region, Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. Results are intended to serve as a planning guide for public health decision makers.
Methods
The simulation model mimics daily social mixing behavior of the susceptible and infected generating the spread. Data representing demographics of the region, virus epidemiology, and social interventions shapes model behavior. Results include daily values of infected, reported, hospitalized, and dead.
Results
Study results show that stay-at-home order is quite effective in flattening and then reversing the case growth curve subsiding the pandemic with only 5.8% of the population infected. Whereas, following Florida’s current Phase II reopening plan could end the pandemic via herd immunity with 75% people infected. Use of surgical variety face masks reduced infected by 20%. A further reduction of 66% was achieved through contact tracing.
Conclusions
For Miami-Dade County, a strategy comprising mandatory use of face masks and aggressive contact tracing to identify 50% of the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic, if adopted now, can potentially steer the COVID-19 pandemic to subside within next 3 months with approximately one fifth of the population infected.
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