Covid-19 mortality rates in Northamptonshire UK: initial sub-regional comparisons and provisional SEIR model of disease spread
Abstract
Objectives
We analysed mortality rates in a nonmetropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) to understand SARSCoV2 disease fatalities at sub 1,000,000 population levels. A numerical (SEIR) model was then developed to predict the spread of Covid19 in Northamptonshire.
Methods
A combined approach using statistically-weighted data to fit the start of the epidemic to the mortality record. Parameter estimates were then derived for the transmission rate and basic reproduction number.
Results
Age standardised mortality rates are highest in Northampton (urban) and lowest in semi-rural districts. Northamptonshire has a statistically higher Covid-19 mortality rate than for the East Midlands and England as a whole. Model outputs suggest the number of infected individuals exceed official estimates, meaning less than 40% of the population may require immunisation.
Conclusions
Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease spread has the potential to help public health practitioners develop bespoke mitigations, guided by local population demographics.
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