Analytical Model of COVID-19 for lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions

In the present work, we outline a set of coarse-grain analytical models that can be used by decision-makers to bound the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on specific communities with known or estimated social contact structure and to assess the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions on slowing the progression of disease spread. This work provides a multi-dimensional view of the problem by examining steady-state and dynamic disease spread using a network-based approach. In addition, Bayesian-based estimation procedures are used to provide a realistic assessment of the severity of outbreaks based on estimates of the average and instantaneous basic reproduction number R ₀ .