Implication of backward contact tracing in the presence of overdispersed transmission in COVID-19 outbreak

  1. Akira Endo
  2. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) COVID-19 Working Group
  3. Quentin J Leclerc
  4. Gwenan M Knight
  5. Graham F Medley
  6. Katherine E Atkins
  7. Sebastian Funk
  8. Adam J Kucharski
4 evaluations Published on
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Abstract

Unlike forward contact tracing, backward contact tracing identifies the source of newly detected cases. This approach is particularly valuable when there is high individual-level variation in the number of secondary transmissions. By using a simple branching process model, we explored the potential of combining backward contact tracing with more conventional forward contact tracing for control of COVID-19.

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