Evidence and magnitude of seasonality in SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Penny wise, pandemic foolish?
Abstract
Importance
Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes.
Objective
Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time.
Setting
Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis.
Methods
Regression was used to find relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates.
Results
Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R 2 = 0.610, p = 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature on SARS-CoV2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase leads to a 1% decrease--and a one degree decrease leads to a 3.7% increase--in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases.
Conclusion
The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, with the reverse true in winter months. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.
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