Effective Reproduction Number and Dispersion under Contact Tracing and Lockdown on COVID-19 in Karnataka

We analyze the data provided in the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) media bulletins of the Govern-ment of Karnataka. We classify the patients of COVID-19 into clusters and study the Reproduction number and Dispersion for eight specific clusters. We find that it is uniformly less than one, indicating the benefits of contact tracing, lockdown and quarantine measures. However, the Dispersion is low indi-cating individual variation in secondary infections and the occurrence of Super-spreading events. Finally, we analyze the surge in infections after 27th June and find it unlikely that it was caused solely by the large Migration in May and June 2020.