Correction of Daily Positivity Rates for contribution of various test protocols being used in a pandemic

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Abstract

Daily positivity rate (DPR) is a popular metric to judge the prevalence of an infection in the population and the testing response to it as a single number. It has been widely implicated in predicting future course of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic in India. With increasing use of multiple testing protocols with varying sensitivity and specificity in various proportions, the naïve calculation loses meaning particularly during comparison between states/countries with large daily variations in contribution of different testing protocols to the testing response. We propose an adjustment to the naïve DPR based on the testing parameters and the relative proportional use of each such protocol. Such a correction has become essential for comparing testing response of Indian states from Jun 2020 – Aug 2020 because of steep variations in testing protocol in certain states.

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