Entry screening and multi-layer mitigation of COVID-19 cases for a safe university reopening

We have performed detailed modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic within the State of Illinois at the population level, and within the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign at a more detailed level of description that follows individual students as they go about their educational and social activities.

We ask the following questions:

• How many COVID-19 cases are expected to be detected by entry screening?

• Will this initial “bump” in cases be containable using the mitigation steps being undertaken at UIUC?

Our answers are:

• Assuming that there are approximately 45,000 students returning to campus in the week beginning August 15, 2020, our most conservative estimate predicts that a median of 270 ± 90 (minimum-maximum range) COVID-19 positive cases will be detected by entry screening. The earliest estimate for entry screening that we report was made on July 24 ^th and predicted 198 ± 90 (68% CI) positive cases.

• If the number of returning students is less, then our estimate just needs to be scaled proportionately.

• This initial bump will be contained by entry screening initiated isolation and contact tracing, and once the semester is underway, by universal masking, a hybrid teaching model, twice-weekly testing, isolation, contact tracing, quarantining and the use of the Safer Illinois exposure notification app.