Forecasting the outbreak of COVID-19 in Lebanon

This note explores the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon using available data until August 25th, 2020 and forecasts the number of infections until the end of September using four diffierent scenarios for mitigation measures reflected in the reproductive number R _t . Mitigation measures in Lebanon date back to early March soon after the first confirmed cases, and have been gradually lifted as of May. Thereafter, the country has witnessed a slow yet steady increase in the number of cases that has been significantly exacerbated after the explosion at Beirut harbor on August 4. Furthermore, we estimate the daily active cases in need of intensive care compared to the available number of beds and we assess accordingly that this capacity will be exhausted within a short span of time, unless severe measures are imposed.