Brief Report: High-Quality Masks Can Reduce Infections and Deaths in the US
Abstract
Objectives
To evaluate the effectiveness of widespread adoption of masks or face coverings to reduce community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19.
Methods
We employed an agent-based stochastic network simulation model, where Covid-19 progresses across census tracts according to a variant of SEIR. We considered a mask order that was initiated 3.5 months after the first confirmed Covid-19 case. We evaluated scenarios where wearing a mask reduces transmission and susceptibility by 50% or 80%; an individual wears a mask with a probability of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, or 100%.
Results
If 60% of the population wears masks that are 50% effective, this decreases the cumulative infection attack rate (CAR) by 25%, the peak prevalence by 51%, and the population mortality by 25%. If 100% of people wear masks (or 60% wear masks that are 80% effective), this decreases the CAR by 38%, the peak prevalence by 67%, and the population mortality by 40%.
Conclusions
After community transmission is present, masks can significantly reduce infections.
Related articles
Related articles are currently not available for this article.