Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh Using Exponential Growth Method
Abstract
Objectives
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Soon, it has spread out across the world and become an ongoing pandemic. In Bangladesh, the first case of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was detected on March 8, 2020. Since then, not many significant studies have been conducted to understand the transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh.
Methods
The data of daily confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh and the reported values of generation time of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) for Singapore and Tianjin, China, were collected. We calculated the basic reproduction number R 0 by applying the exponential growth (EG) method. Epidemic data of the first 76 days and different values of generation time were used for the calculation.
Results
The basic reproduction number R 0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh is estimated to be 2.66 [95% CI: 2.58-2.75], optimized R 0 is 2.78 [95% CI: 2.69-2.88] using generation time 5.20 with a standard deviation of 1.72 for Singapore. Using generation time 3.95 with a standard deviation of 1.51 for Tianjin, China, R 0 is estimated to be 2.15 [95% CI: 2.09-2.20], optimized R 0 is 2.22 [95% CI: 2.16-2.29].
Conclusions
The calculated basic reproduction number R 0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh is significantly higher than 1, which indicates its high transmissibility and contagiousness.
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