Risk of death among people with rare autoimmune diseases compared to the general population in England during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives

To quantify the risk of death among people with rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases (RAIRD) during the UK 2020 COVID-19 pandemic compared to the general population, and compared to their pre-COVID risk.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study in Hospital Episode Statistics for England 2003 onwards, and linked data from the NHS Personal Demographics Service. We used ONS published data for general population mortality rates.

Results

We included 168,691 people with a recorded diagnosis of RAIRD alive on 01/03/2020. Their median age was 61.7 (IQR 41.5-75.4) years, and 118,379 (70.2%) were female. Our case ascertainment methods had a positive predictive value of 85%. 1,815 (1.1%) participants died during March and April 2020. The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) among people with RAIRD (3669.3, 95% CI 3500.4-3838.1 per 100,000 person-years) was 1.44 (95% CI 1.42-1.45) times higher than the average ASMR during the same months of the previous 5 years, whereas in the general population of England it was 1.38 times higher. Age-specific mortality rates in people with RAIRD compared to the pre-COVID rates were higher from the age of 35 upwards, whereas in the general population the increased risk began from age 55 upwards. Women had a greater increase in mortality rates during COVID-19 compared to men.

Conclusion

The risk of all-cause death is more prominently raised during COVID-19 among people with RAIRD than among the general population. We urgently need to quantify how much risk is due to COVID-19 infection and how much is due to disruption to healthcare services.

Key messages

• People with RAIRD had an increased risk of dying during COVID-19 from age 35 years onwards, whereas in the general population it increased from the age of 55 onwards.

• Women had a greater increase in their risk of death during COVID-19 compared to men.

• The risk of working age people with RAIRD dying during COVID-19 was similar to that of someone 20 years older in the general population.