“Return to University Campuses Associated with 9% Increase in New COVID-19 Case Rate”

The vast majority of colleges and universities across the United States are bringing students back for in-person instruction in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the absence of an effective vaccine or other anti-viral therapeutic treatment. Using data from the New York Times and the American Community Survey, we assess the effect of this return to campus on viral case growth in counties with a significant college student population (“college counties”) relative to non-college counties. We find a significant surge in new cases in a 21-day time frame in college counties, a finding consistent across U.S. Census divisions. These results suggest the need for institutions of higher education and the communities where these institutions reside work together quickly and effectively to mitigate viral transmission and to prevent overwhelming local healthcare infrastructure in college counties.