Examining the decision to offer in-person college instruction during the COVID-19 era: A multilevel analysis of the factors that affected intentions to open

At the end of Summer 2020 colleges and universities had to make difficult decisions about whether to return to in-person instruction. While opening campuses could pose a major health risk, keeping instruction online could dissuade students from enrolling. Taking an ecological approach that considers the influence of state, county, and college characteristics, this study uses mixed modeling techniques and data from 89% of two- and four-year public and four-year private US colleges to assess the factors that shaped their decision to provide mostly in-person instruction as of August 1, 2020. We consider the roles of the political and religious climate, COVID-19 infections, deaths, and mask mandates, college niche, finances, dormitory capacity, faculty resistance, online readiness, and enrollment pressures. Most notably, we find that decision-making was unrelated to cumulative COVID infection and related mortality rates. The strongest predictor of in-person instruction was the proportion of state residents who voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. We also find that dormitory capacity, percentage of revenue from tuition, institutional importance to the local economy, graduation rates, and per capita endowment were associated with providing in-person instruction.