The impact of COVID-19 on Long Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) of an Italian Province: a cohort study and a retrospective analysis of observed vs. expected mortality

In Italy, as in other countries, Long Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) have seen a disproportionally high number of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Veneto region was one of the first areas of the country where the virus spread rapidly particularly in the LTCFs. As it became evident that LTCs were the epicenter of the pandemic, health authorities of the Vicenza province adopted a plan, which included an epidemiological investigation in a case study facility (CSF) and a retrospective analysis to estimate the impact of COVID-19 in terms of mortality. Combining retrospective data and a prospective cohort study in the CSF we provided a tentative estimate of the impact of COVID-19 on LTCFs. We found an age-gradient in all variables explored. An observed mortality higher 60% than 2019 was found in those LTCF reporting COVID-19 cases. Our findings suggest the need to adopt and maintain strict mitigation measures in LTCFs in the future dynamics of the epidemic.