Effectiveness of quarantine and testing to prevent COVID-19 transmission from arriving travelers
Abstract
Objective
To assess the efficacy of policies designed to reduce the risk of international travelers importing SARS-CoV-2 into a country.
Method
We developed a simulation model and compared mandatory quarantine, testing, and combined quarantine and testing. We assessed the sensitivity of policy effectiveness to the timing of testing, compliance with quarantine and isolation, and other factors.
Results
In the base scenario, a 2-day quarantine reduced more risk than testing alone. The effectiveness of a 5-day quarantine requirement with perfect compliance was similar to a 14-day quarantine with moderate compliance. Testing 72h before arrival reduced less than 10% of in-country transmission risk across all scenarios. The addition of testing to quarantine added value for shorter quarantine lengths, when testing compliance was enforced, and when testing was performed near the end of quarantine.
Conclusions
Quarantine is more effective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission from arriving travelers than testing alone, but testing combined with quarantine can add value if longer quarantine requirements are infeasible. Enforcing compliance with quarantine and isolation is critical. Requiring a negative test up to 72h before arrival may have limited effectiveness.
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