Characteristics of those most vulnerable to employment changes during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationally representative cross-sectional study in Wales

Background

The public health response to the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a detrimental impact on employment and there are concerns the impact may be greatest amongst the most vulnerable. We examined the characteristics of those who experienced changes in employment status during the early months of the pandemic.

Methods

Data was collected from a cross-sectional, nationally representative household survey of the working age population (18-64 years) in Wales in May/June 2020 (N=1,379). We looked at changes in employment and being placed on furlough since February 2020 across demographics, contract type, job skill level, health status and household factors. Chi-squared or Fisher’s tests and multinomial logistic regression models examined associations between demographics, subgroups and employment outcomes.

Results

Of our respondents 91.0% remained in the same job in May/June 2020 as they were in February 2020, 5.7% were now in a new job, and 3.3% experienced unemployment. In addition, 24% of our respondents reported being placed on furlough. Non-permanent contract types, individuals who reported low mental wellbeing and household financial difficulties were all significant factors in experiencing unemployment. Being placed on ‘furlough’ was more likely in younger (18-29 years) and older (60-64 years) workers, those in lower skilled jobs and from households with less financial security.

Conclusion

A number of vulnerable population groups were observed to experience detrimental employment outcomes during the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted support is needed to mitigate against both the direct impacts on employment, and indirect impacts on financial insecurity and health.

What is already known on this subject?

• The response to the current global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is already having a significant impact on people’s ability to work and employment status.

• Emerging UK employment data has raised concerns about the disproportionate impact on specific demographic groups.

What this study adds?

• Groups that reported higher proportions of being placed on furlough included younger (18-29 years) and older (50-64 years) workers, people from more deprived areas, in lower skilled jobs, and those from households with less financial security.

• Job insecurity in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic was experienced more by those self-employed or employed on atypical or fixed term contract arrangements compared to those holding permanent contracts.

• To ensure that health and wealth inequalities are not exacerbated by COVID-19 or the economic response to the pandemic, interventions should include the promotion of secure employment and target the groups identified as most susceptible to the emerging harms of the pandemic.