Aggressive COVID-19 “second wave” in Italy

A two-step model for the rise and decay of the COVID-19 is applied to the Fall resurgence of COVID-19 in Italy. Data starting from October 6, 2020 are compared to the same time interval in Italy starting from the complete lockdown on March 14, 2020. The model predicts more than 130,000 deceased by the end of the year 2020 if no effective measures are taken. If similar measures to the March ones are quickly adopted, the number of deceased may decrease to over 50,000. The situation is extremely serious and requires collaboration from everyone starting from wearing masks and other protections when social distancing is not feasible.