I’m alone but not lonely. U-shaped pattern of perceived loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and Greece
Abstract
Many countries have adopted lengthy lockdown measures to mitigate the spreading of the COVID-19 virus. In this study, we train a RandomForest model using 10 variables quantifying individuals’ living environment, physical and mental health statuses to predict how long each of the UK participants (N=382) had been in lockdown. Self-perceived loneliness was found to be the most important variable predicting time in lockdown and, therefore, the aspect most influenced by the time the participant spent in lockdown. Subsequent statistical analysis showed a significant U-shaped curve for the levels of perceived loneliness (p<0.012), specifically decreasing during the 4th and 5th lockdown weeks. The same pattern was found on data from Greek citizens (N=129, p<0.041). These results suggest that lockdown measures may have affected how people evaluated their social support while in lockdown, leading to a decreased sense of loneliness. Implications of this study should be reflected on policies and countermeasures to current and future pandemics.
State of relevance
This study aims to inform policies for the current and/or future pandemics, particularly those involving lockdown restrictions. It highlights that self-perceived loneliness was the trait most affected by the time spent in lockdown: data show that the very first period of lockdown was characterised by a decrease in levels of perceived loneliness. The machine learning approach adopted and the statistical validation on two different Western European countries ensure that the uncovered pattern is substantial. This result highlights the dissociation between objective social support and perceived loneliness: initially, restrictions may have triggered better social behaviours among communities or increased the level of gratitude for the social support people have always received. The short duration of these desirable effects suggests that measures and campaigns promoting better social support strategies could be potentially effective, even in social isolation, to keep the levels of perceived loneliness low.
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