COVID-19 Spreading Dynamics with Vaccination – Allocation Strategy, Return to Normalcy and Vaccine Hesitancy

In this work we use mathematical modeling to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 spread after a vaccination program is initiated. The model used is a delay differential equation developed earlier by our group. Basis of currently available data, our principal findings are as follows. ( a ) For fastest deceleration of the pandemic, people with high interaction rate such as grocers and airline cabin crew should be given priority in vaccine access. ( b ) Individuals who have been vaccinated may be selectively cleared to return to normal activities without significant risk of a resurgence in cases. ( c ) If an infection as well as a vaccine confers immunity for a duration τ ₀ , then the pandemic can be eliminated by vaccinating people at a sufficiently high rate. Unless τ ₀ is very small, the cutoff rate required appears feasible to achieve in practice. ( d ) The presence of a substantial minority of vaccine-hesitant population might not amount to a significant threat or even an inconvenience to a vaccine-compliant majority population.