The impacts of COVID-19 vaccine timing, number of doses, and risk prioritization on mortality in the US

  1. Xutong Wang
  2. Zhanwei Du
  3. Kaitlyn E. Johnson
  4. Remy F. Pasco
  5. Spencer J. Fox
  6. Michael Lachmann
  7. Jason S. McLellan
  8. Lauren Ancel Meyers
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Abstract

As COVID-19 vaccination begins worldwide, policymakers face critical trade-offs. Using a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, we find that timing of the rollout is expected to have a substantially greater impact on mortality than risk-based prioritization and uptake and that prioritizing first doses over second doses may be life saving.

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