Confirmed forecasts for the expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic in the largest Brazilian City
Abstract
Objective
A SEIR compartmental model was previously selected to estimate future outcomes to the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in Brazil.
Method
Compartments for individuals vaccinated, and prevalent SARS-Cov-2 variants were not included. A time-dependent incidence weight on the reproductive basic number accounted for Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI). A first series of published data from March 1 st to May 8, 2020 was used to adjust all model parameters aiming to forecast one year of evolutionary outbreak. The cohort study was set as a city population-based analysis.
Analysis
The population-based sample, 25,366 during the study period, was the number of confirmed cases on exposed individuals. The analysis was applied to predict the consequences of holding for posterior NPI releases, and indicates the appearance of a second wave starting last quarter of 2020.
Findings
By March 1st 2021, the number of confirmed cases was predicted to reach 0.47Million (0.24-0.78), and fatalities would account for 21 thousand (12-33), 5 to 95% CRI. A second series of data published from May 9, 2020 to March 1 st , 2021 confirms the forecasts previously reported for the evolution of infected people and fatalities.
Novelty
By March 1 st 2021, the number of confirmed cases reached 527,710 (12% bellow predicted average of accumulated cases), and fatalities accounted for 18,769 (10% above the accumulated average of estimated fatalities). After March 1 st , new peaks on reported numbers of daily new infected and new fatalities appeared as a combined result to the appearance of the prevalent SARS-CoV-2 P1 variant, and the increased number of vaccinated individuals.
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