Note: Forecasting COVID-19 spread in Lebanon February 8-21,2021

This note implements an iterative method in order to predict the number of active cases with COVID-19, and consequently forecast the number of inpatients to hospitals and ICU in Lebanon according to different scenarios after end of the complete closure and curfew implemented between January 13 and February 7, 2021. The forecast predicts a decrease in the number of infections and people in need for hospitalization and ICU during the 2 weeks after the curfew (until February 21st), with varying extents depending on the subsequent commitment to mitigation measures, except for the case of a 2% absolute increase from the current rate of infection, which would bring back the numbers of cases back to a increasing trend.