Estimating the spreading and dominance of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) across Europe

We develop a two strain, age-structured, compartmental model to assess the spreading potential of the B.1.1.7 variant across several European metropolitan areas and countries. The model accounts for B.1.1.7 introductions from the UK and different locations, as well as local mitigation policies in the time period 2020/09 − 2021/02. In the case of an increase of transmissibility of 50%, the B.1.1.7 variant has the potential to become dominant in all investigated areas by the end of March 2021.