Risk of death among teachers in England and Wales during the Covid19 pandemic

Objectives

To estimate occupation risk from Covid19 among teachers and others working in schools using publicly available data on mortality in England and Wales.

Design

Analysis of national death registration data from the Office for National Statistics.

Setting

England and Wales, March 20 ^th to 28 ^th December 2020, during the Covid19 pandemic.

Participants

The total working age population in England and Wales plus those still working aged over 65.

Primary and Secondary outcomes

Death with Covid19 as a primary outcome and death from all causes as a secondary outcome.

Results

Across occupational groups there was a strong correlation between Covid19 mortality and both non-Covid19 and all-cause mortality. The absolute mortality rates for deaths with Covid19 were low amongst those working in schools (from 10 per 100,000 in female primary school teachers to 39 per 100,000 male secondary school teachers) relative to many other occupations (range: 10 to 143 per 100,000 in men; 9 to 50 per 100,000 in women).There was weak evidence that secondary school teachers had slightly higher risks of dying with Covid19 compared to the average for all working aged people, but stronger evidence of a higher risk compared to the average for all professionals; primary school teachers had a lower risk. All-cause mortality was also higher amongst all teachers compared to all professionals. Teaching and lunchtime assistants were not at higher risk of death from Covid19 compared with all working aged people.

Conclusion

There was weak evidence that Covid19 mortality risk for secondary school teachers was above expectation, but in general school staff had Covid19 mortality risks which were proportionate to their non-covid mortality risk.

Strengths and limitations of this study

• We used routinely collected data on all deaths in England and Wales;, which are near-complete and not susceptible to serious ascertainment biases.

• We were able to compare mortality data for teachers and other school workers with all other occupational groups and with the working-age population.

• The number of deaths due to Covid19 were small and thus differences between the specific occupational groups were imprecisely estimated.

• We did not have access to individual level mortality data so were not able to account for potential confounders such as comorbidities or household size.

• For those working in school aged over 65 we had neither mortality rates per 100,000 nor total numbers within the group; we only had number of deaths and a 5-year average and we do not know whether the denominators have changed for this group over the last 5 years.