Optimal mobility restriction minimizing COVID-19 and excess suicide deaths in Japan
Abstract
Background
Strict countermeasures for COVID-19 outbreak such as lockdowns and voluntary restrictions against going out might have reduced mortality because of COVID-19 directly, but might have raised suicide rates.
Object
We examined best policies for minimizing overall mortality attributable to COVID-19 directly, and excess mortality by suicide because of COVID-19.
Method
We regressed the estimated excess mortality attributable to suicide deaths against mobility-restrictive measures. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 directly was estimated through association between the effective reproduction number and mobility. We sought the best mobility restriction for minimizing overall deaths.
Results
Significant association was found between mobility and suicide, but the data were very few. Results showed the best mobility level as 65.5, which represents a 34.5% reduction in mobility from the normal level.
Discussion and Conclusion
An overly restrictive policy inducing lower than optimal mobility led to higher total mortality.
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