Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England

  1. Daniel J Grint
  2. Kevin Wing
  3. Elizabeth Williamson
  4. Helen I McDonald
  5. Krishnan Bhaskaran
  6. David Evans
  7. Stephen JW Evans
  8. Alex J Walker
  9. George Hickman
  10. Emily Nightingale
  11. Anna Schultze
  12. Christopher T Rentsch
  13. Chris Bates
  14. Jonathan Cockburn
  15. Helen J Curtis
  16. Caroline E Morton
  17. Sebastian Bacon
  18. Simon Davy
  19. Angel YS Wong
  20. Amir Mehrkar
  21. Laurie Tomlinson
  22. Ian J Douglas
  23. Rohini Mathur
  24. Paula Blomquist
  25. Brian MacKenna
  26. Peter Ingelsby
  27. Richard Croker
  28. John Parry
  29. Frank Hester
  30. Sam Harper
  31. Nicholas J DeVito
  32. Will Hulme
  33. John Tazare
  34. Ben Goldacre
  35. Liam Smeeth
  36. Rosalind M Eggo
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Abstract

The B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (HR: 1.67 (95% CI: 1.34 - 2.09; P<.0001)). Absolute risk of death by 28-days increased with age and comorbidities. VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

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