Value-based pricing of a COVID-19 vaccine
Abstract
Aim
The purpose of this study is to determine the value-based price of a COVID-19 vaccine from a societal perspective in Germany.
Methods
A decision model was constructed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and herd protection threshold. Three strategies were analysed: vaccination (with 95% and 50% efficacy), a mitigation strategy, and no intervention. The base-case time horizon was 5 years. The value of a vaccine included savings from avoiding COVID-19 mitigation measures and health benefits from avoiding COVID-19 related mortality. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19.
Results
A vaccine with a 95% efficacy dominates the mitigation strategy strictly. The value-based price (€1494) is thus determined by the comparison between vaccination and no intervention. This price is particularly sensitive to the probability of ICU admission and the herd protection threshold. In contrast, the value of a vaccine with 50% efficacy is more ambiguous.
Conclusion
This study yields a value-based price for a COVID-19 vaccine with 95% efficacy, which is more than 50 times greater than the purchasing price.
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