The impact of headache disorders on COVID-19 survival: a world population-based analysis
Abstract
Importance
COVID-19 has not impacted people or countries uniformly. This disparity has prompted investigations to identify clinical and genetic predictors of COVID-19 mortality. Headache, a COVID-19 symptom, has been associated with positive disease prognosis. It is logical to consider whether primary headache disorders, among the most prevalent and disabling diseases globally, may also be associated with reduced viral mortality and thereby may have arisen as adaptive host defences
Objective
To study the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and primary headache disorders.
Main outcome measure
Using a generalized additive model regression (GAM), we analysed data across 171 nations to identify variables which impact COVID-19 mortality rates (demographics, national wealth and government effectiveness, pandemic management indexes, latitude of the country’s capital, prevalence of headache disorders and other diseases). We performed similar analyses of seasonal influenza mortality. Separately, we meta-analysed studies of COVID-19 inpatient survival reporting headache, using PRISMA guidelines.
Results
In the global population-level analysis, we observed that a higher prevalence of headache disorders was associated with a higher COVID-19 mortality rate, and represented the main variable contributing to differences in COVID-19 mortality rates between countries (37.8%; F value=10.68). By contrast, we observed a negative trend between the prevalence of headache disorders and influenza death rates. Controversially, when considering headache as a symptom of COVID-19, in the 48 meta-analysed studies we observed a significantly higher risk ratio of survival (RR:2.178 [1.882-2.520], p<0.0001) among COVID-19 inpatients with headache.
Conclusions and Relevance
Headache as a primary disorder is more prevalent in nations with higher COVID-19 mortality, whereas headache as a COVID-19 symptom is associated with enhanced survival. Further studies should clarify whether primary headache disorders represent a risk factor for mortality for COVID-19 or, rather, whether this association reflects evolutionary adaptive processes to enhance survival that, in the case of COVID-19, are insufficiently protective.
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