Host phenology can drive the evolution of intermediate virulence strategies in some obligate-killer parasites

The traditional mechanistic trade-offs resulting in a negative correlation between transmission and virulence are the foundation of nearly all current theory on the evolution of parasite virulence. Several ecological factors have been shown to modulate the optimal virulence strategies predicted from mechanistic trade-off models, but these ecological factors have not yet been shown to be sufficient to explain the intermediate virulence strategies observed in any natural system. The timing of seasonal activity, or phenology, is a common factor that influences the types and impact of many ecological interactions but is difficult to incorporate into virulence evolution studies. We develop a mathematical model of a disease system with seasonal host activity to study the evolutionary consequences of host phenology on the virulence of obligate-killer parasite. Results from this model demonstrated that seasonal host activity is sufficient to drive the evolution of intermediate parasite virulence in some types of natural disease systems, even when a traditional mechanistic trade-off between transmission and virulence is not assumed in the modeling framework. The optimal virulence strategy in these systems can be determined by both the duration of the host activity period as well as the variation in the host emergence timing. Parasites with low virulence strategies are favored in environments with long host activity periods and in environments in which hosts emerge synchronously. The results demonstrate that host phenology can be sufficient to select for intermediate optimal virulence strategies, providing an alternative mechanism to account for virulence evolution in some natural systems.