Computational prediction of the effect of amino acid changes on the binding affinity between SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the human ACE2 receptor

The association of the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 viral spike with human angiotensin converting enzyme (hACE2) represents the first required step for viral entry. Amino acid changes in the RBD have been implicated with increased infectivity and potential for immune evasion. Reliably predicting the effect of amino acid changes in the ability of the RBD to interact more strongly with the hACE2 receptor can help assess the public health implications and the potential for spillover and adaptation into other animals. Here, we introduce a two-step framework that first relies on 48 independent 4-ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of RBD-hACE2 variants to collect binding energy terms decomposed into Coulombic, covalent, van der Waals, lipophilic, generalized Born electrostatic solvation, hydrogen-bonding, π-π packing and self-contact correction terms. The second step implements a neural network to classify and quantitatively predict binding affinity using the decomposed energy terms as descriptors. The computational base achieves an accuracy of 82.2% in terms of correctly classifying single amino-acid substitution variants of the RBD as worsening or improving binding affinity for hACE2 and a correlation coefficient r of 0.69 between predicted and experimentally calculated binding affinities. Both metrics are calculated using a 5-fold cross validation test. Our method thus sets up a framework for effectively screening binding affinity change with unknown single and multiple amino-acid changes. This can be a very valuable tool to predict host adaptation and zoonotic spillover of current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants.