Using proper mean generation intervals in modelling of COVID-19

This article has 1 evaluations Published on
Read the full article Related papers
This article on Sciety

Abstract

In susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models, with the exponentially distributed duration of exposed/infectious statuses, the mean generation interval (GI, time lag between infections of a primary case and its secondary case) equals the mean latent period (LP) plus the mean infectious period (IP). It was widely reported that the GI for COVID-19 is as short as 5 days. However, many works in top journals used longer LP or IP with the sum (i.e., GI), e.g., > 7 days. This discrepancy will lead to overestimated basic reproductive number, and exaggerated expectation of infectious attack rate and control efficacy, since all these quantities are functions of basic reproductive number. We argue that it is important to use suitable epidemiological parameter values.

Related articles

Related articles are currently not available for this article.