An extended SEIARD model for COVID-19 vaccination in Mexico: analysis and forecast

In this study, we propose and analyse an extended SEIARD model with vaccination. We compute the control reproduction number ℛ _c of our model and study the stability of equilibria. We show that the set of disease-free equilibria is locally asymptotically stable when ℛ _c < 1 and unstable when ℛ _c > 1, and we provide a sufficient condition for its global stability. Furthermore, we perform numerical simulations using the reported data of COVID-19 infections and vaccination in Mexico to study the impact of different vaccination, transmission and efficacy rates on the dynamics of the disease.