Quarantine, relaxation and mutation explaining the CoViD-19 epidemic in São Paulo State (Brazil)
Abstract
Background
The continuous SARS-CoV-2 transmission in several countries could contribute to the mutations’ appearance. The circulation of more virulent variants may increase the number of severe CoViD-19 needing hospital care and fatalities hugely.
Methods
The partial quarantine in São Paulo State and further relaxation associated with the mutations are explained by a mathematical model based on the CoViD-19 natural history encompassing the age-dependent fatality. The model parameters were fitted considering the observed data from São Paulo State.
Results
The partial quarantine was explained by the less virulent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the relaxation alone could not explain the epidemic observed in São Paulo State. However, more virulent variants plus the transmission among isolated individuals explained the increased CoViD-19 fatalities.
Conclusions
The model described the CoViD-19 epidemic in São Paulo State by considering the partial quarantine, relaxation and mutations. The model provided a potential epidemiological scenario in the absence of mass vaccination.
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