Interplay between receptor binding, immune escape and protein stability determines the natural selection of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants has raised concerns at the effectiveness of vaccines and antibody therapeutics developed against the unmutated wild-type virus. We examined the effect of 12 most commonly occurring mutations in the receptor binding domain on its expression, stability, activity, and antibody escape potential-some of the factors that may influence the natural selection of mutants. Recombinant proteins were expressed in human cells. Stability was measured using thermal denaturation melts. Activity and antibody escape potential were measured using isothermal titration calorimetry in terms of binding to ACE2 and to a neutralizing human antibody CC12.1, respectively. Our results show that variants differ in their expression levels with the two least stable variants showing lesser expression. Out of the 8 well-expressed mutants, only 2 (N501Y and K417T/E484K/N501Y) showed stronger affinity to ACE2, 4 (Y453F, S477N, T478I and S494P) have similar affinity, whereas the other 2 (K417N and E484K) have weaker affinity when compared to the wild-type. In terms of CC12.1 binding, when compared to the wild-type, 4 variants (K417N, Y453F, N501Y and K417T/E484K/N501Y) have weaker affinity, 2 (S477N and S494P) have similar affinity, and 2 (T478I and E484K) have stronger affinity. Taken together, these results indicate that multiple factors contribute towards the natural selection of variants, and all these factors need be considered to understand the evolution of the virus. In addition, since not all variants can escape a given neutralizing antibody, antibodies to treat new variants can be chosen based on the specific mutations in that variant.