Modelling the effect of an improved trace and isolate system in the wake of a highly transmissible Covid-19 variant with potential vaccine escape
Abstract
Objective
How helpful would a properly functioning find, test, trace, isolate and support (FTTIS) system be now in the UK with new Covid-19 infections at a low level and half the adult population immunised but with a highly transmissible variant becoming predominant?
Design
a dynamic causal model of Covid-19 supplied with the latest available empirical data is used to assess the impact of a new highly transmissible variant.
Setting
the United Kingdom.
Participants
a population based study.
Interventions
scenarios are used to explore a Covid-19 transmission rate 50% more and twice the current rate with or without a more effective FTTIS system.
Main outcome measures
incidence, death rate and reproductive ratio
Results
a small short third wave of infections occurs which does not occur if FTTIS effectiveness is improved from 25% to 30%.
Conclusion
a modest improvement in FTTIS would prevent a third wave caused by a highly transmissible virus.
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