Second wave of COVID-19 in India could be predicted with genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants coupled with epidemiological data: A tool for future

India recently witnessed a devastating second wave of COVID-19, which peaked by the end of the first week of May 2021. We aimed to understand formation and spread of the second wave in the country. We analyzed time series distribution of the genomic sequence data for SARS-CoV-2 and correlated that with the epidemiological data for new cases and deaths, for the corresponding period of the second wave. Further we analyzed the phylodynamics of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the Indian population in the period of study. Our analysis shows that the first indications of arrival of the second wave were observable by the end of January 2021, and by the end of March, 2021 it was clearly indicated. B.1.617 lineage variants drove the wave, particularly B.1.617.2 (a.k.a. delta variant). Based on the observations of this study, we propose that genomic surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 variants augmented with epidemiological data can be a promising tool for forecasting imminent COVID-19 waves.