Comparative evaluation of the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in late 2019, several variants of concern (VOC) have been reported, such as B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, and B.1.617.2. The exact reproduction number R _t for these VOCs is important to determine appropriate control measures. Here, we estimated the transmissibility for VOCs and lineages of SAR-CoV-2 based on genomic data and Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to infer the reproduction number ( R _t ). We analyzed data for multiple VOCs from the same time period and countries, in order to compare their transmissibility while controlling for geographical and temporal factors. The lineage B had a significantly higher transmissibility than lineage A, and contributed to the global pandemic to a large extent. In addition, all VOCs had increased transmissibility when compared with other lineages in each country, indicating they are harder to control and present a high risk to public health. All countries should formulate specific prevention and control policies for these VOCs when they are detected to curve their potential for large-scale spread.