Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview
Abstract
Objective
This mixed design synthesis aimed to estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in community-dwelling elderly populations and other age groups from seroprevalence studies. Protocol: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://osf.io/47cgb">https://osf.io/47cgb</ext-link> .
Methods and analyses
Eligible were seroprevalence studies done in 2020 and identified by any of four existing systematic reviews; with ≥1000 participants aged ≥70 years that presented seroprevalence in elderly people; that aimed to generate samples reflecting the general population; and whose location had available data on cumulative COVID-19 deaths in elderly (primary cutoff ≥70 years; ≥65 or ≥60 also eligible). We extracted the most fully adjusted (if unavailable, unadjusted) seroprevalence estimates. We also extracted age- and residence-stratified cumulative COVID-19 deaths (until 1 week after the seroprevalence sampling midpoint) from official reports, and population statistics, to calculate IFRs corrected for unmeasured antibody types. Sample size-weighted IFRs were estimated for countries with multiple estimates. Secondary analyses examined data on younger age strata from the same studies.
Results
Twenty-five seroprevalence surveys representing 14 countries were included. Across all countries, the median IFR in community-dwelling elderly and elderly overall was 2.9% (range 0.2%-6.9%) and 4.9% (range 0.2%-16.8%) without accounting for seroreversion (2.4% and 4.0%, respectively, accounting for 5% monthly seroreversion). Multiple sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. IFR was higher with larger proportions of people >85 years. Younger age strata had low IFR values (median 0.0013%, 0.0088%, 0.021%, 0.042%, 0.14%, and 0.65%, at 0-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years even without accounting for seroreversion).
Conclusions
The IFR of COVID-19 in community-dwelling elderly people is lower than previously reported. Very low IFRs were confirmed in the youngest populations.
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