Community Mobility and COVID-19 Dynamics in Jakarta, Indonesia
Abstract
Background
Human mobility could act as a vector to facilitate the spread of infectious diseases. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Google Community Mobility Reports (CMR) provide the necessary data to explore community mobility further. Therefore, we aimed to examine the relationship between community mobility on COVID-19 dynamics in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Methods
We utilized the mobility data from Google from February 15 to December 31, 2020. We explored several statistical models to estimate the COVID-19 dynamics in Jakarta. Model 1 was a Poisson Regression Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Model 2 was a Negative Binomial Regression Generalized Linear Model (GLM), and Model 3 was a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR).
Results
We found that Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) with some adjustments using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was the best fit model. It explained 52% of COVID-19 cases in Jakarta (R-Square: 0.52, p<0.05). All mobility variables were significant predictors of COVID-19 cases (p<0.05). More precisely, about 1% change in grocery and pharmacy would contribute to a 4.12% increase of the COVID-19 cases in Jakarta. Retails and recreations, workplaces, transit stations, and parks would result in 3.11%, 2.56%, 2.26%, and 1.93% of more COVID-19 cases, respectively.
Conclusion
Our study indicates that increased mobility contributes to increased COVID-19 cases. This finding will be beneficial to assist policymakers to have better outbreak management strategies, to anticipate increased COVID-19 cases in the future at certain public places and during seasonal events such as annual religious holidays or other long holidays in particular.
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