Improving the reproduction number calculation by treating for daily variations of SARS-CoV-2 cases

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Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic impacted the human life all over the globe, starting in the year of its emergence, 2019, and in the following years. A epidemiological key indicator that gained particular recognition in politics and decision making is the time-dependent reproduction number R t , which is commonly calculated by institutions responsible for disease control following a method presented by Cori et. al. Here, we propose an improved as well as an alternative method, which make the calculation more stable against oscillations arising from daily variations in testing. Both methods can be used without great statistical knowledge or effort. The methods provides a smoother result without increasing the time-lag, and provides an advantage particular in the timeframe of weeks, which might serve as a better ground for forecasts and the raising of alarms.

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