Anticipating racial/ethnic mortality displacement from COVID-19

In 2020, life expectancy in the United States decreased by an estimated 1.5 years. Due to mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy could soon rebound to above its pre-pandemic baseline. We estimated the size and duration of this anticipated rise in life expectancy through 2030. We found that this rebound could persist for years and will likely be most pronounced in minority populations who suffered the highest rates of mortality during the pandemic. Accounting for this artificial rebound will be critical to avoid funneling resources away from populations that still urgently need them.