A Genotype-to-Phenotype Modeling Framework to Predict Human Pathogenicity of Novel Coronaviruses

Leveraging prior viral genome sequencing data to make predictions on whether an unknown, emergent virus harbors a ‘phenotype-of-concern’ has been a long-sought goal of genomic epidemiology. A predictive phenotype model built from nucleotide-level information alone has previously been considered un-tenable with respect to RNA viruses due to the ultra-high intra-sequence variance of their genomes, even within closely related clades. Building from our prior work developing a degenerate k-mer method to accommodate this high intra-sequence variation of RNA virus genomes for modeling frameworks, and leveraging a taxonomic ‘group-shuffle-split’ paradigm on complete coronavirus assemblies from prior to October 2018, we trained multiple regularized logistic regression classifiers at the nucleotide k-mer level capable of accurately predicting withheld SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences as human pathogens and accurately predicting withheld Swine Acute Diarrhea Syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV) genome sequences as non-human pathogens. LASSO feature selection identified several degenerate nucleotide predictor motifs with high model coefficients for the human pathogen class that were present across widely disparate classes of coronaviruses. However, these motifs differed in which genes they were present in, what specific codons were used to encode them, and what the translated amino acid motif was. This emphasizes the importance of a phenetic view of emerging pathogenic RNA viruses, as opposed to the canonical phylogenetic interpretations most-commonly used to track and manage viral zoonoses. Applying our model to more recent Orthocoronavirinae genomes deposited since October 2018 yields a novel contextual view of pathogen-potential across bat-related, canine-related, porcine-related, and rodent-related coronaviruses and critical adaptations which may have contributed to the emergence of the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus. Finally, we discuss the utility of these predictive models (and their associated predictor motifs) to novel biosurveillance protocols that substantially increase the ‘pound-for-pound’ information content of field-collected sequencing data and make a strong argument for the necessity of routine collection and sequencing of zoonotic viruses.