Calibrating an SIR model for South Korea COVID-19 infections and predicting vaccination impact

In the span of 1.5 years, COVID-19 has caused more than 4 million deaths worldwide. To prevent such a catastrophe from reoccurring, it is necessary to test and refine current epidemiological models that impact policy decisions. Thus, we developed a deterministic SIR model to examine the long-term transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Korea. Using this model, we analyzed how vaccines would affect the number of cases. We found that a 70% vaccination coverage with a 100% effective vaccine would effectively eliminate the number of cases and herd immunity would have been obtained approximately 85 days after February 15 had there not been a reintroduction of cases.