Updated Model for the USA Summer 2021 CoVID-19 Resurgence

Over the course of the CoVID-19 pandemic, we utilized widely-available real-time data to create models for predicting its spread, and to estimate the time evolution for each of the USA CoVID-19 waves. Our recent medrxiv . org preprint ( 10 . 1101_2021 . 08 . 16 . 21262150 ) examined the USA Summer 2021 resurgence, from ∼6/7/2021 up through ∼8/15/2021 ( Stage 1 ). Our preprint covering this period showed that CoVID-19 could infect virtually all susceptible non-vaccinated persons, who were practicing minimal Social Distancing and NO Mask-Wearing .

The most recent USA Summer 2021 resurgence data, from ∼8/13/2021 up through 10/7/2021 ( Stage 2 ), shows a significant “flattening of the curve”. Since no new government mandates were involved, our interpretation is that some vaccine-hesitant people have now elected to become vaccinated. The Social Distancing parameter in our model showed a ∼6.67X increase between Stage 1 and Stage 2 , indicating that this parameter also can serve as an indicator of vaccination rates. The other parameter in our model, which is associated with Mask-Wearing , increased from zero to a finite but relatively small value. Using the 10/7/2021 USA CoVID-19 overall mortality rate of ∼1.60942 % gives these updated predictions for the total number of USA CoVID-19 cases and deaths:

N _TOTAL (3 / 21 / 2022) ≈ 52, 188, 000 ; N _Deaths (3 / 21 / 2022) ≈ 839, 900, N _TOTAL (3 / 21 / 2024) ≈ [52, 787, 000 ; N _Deaths (3 / 21 / 2024) ≈ 849, 600, assuming no new 2021 Winter Resurgence occurs ( with 3 Figures ).