How many lives do COVID vaccines save? Evidence from Israel
Abstract
Background
In December 2020, Israel began a mass vaccination program with the rapid rollout of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine for adults in Israel. The campaign vaccinated fewer people than necessary for herd immunity. However, at the same time, government stringency measures in terms of closing public life were decreased. Real-world observational data were used to examine the effect of mass vaccination on Covid-19 mortality.
Methods
The study period to examine the effect of vaccination on mortality was chosen to capture when at least 90% of the population over age 70 were vaccinated for less than seven months. Projected deaths as expected from vaccine efficacy and actual mortality data were compared for the study population with examination of potential confounding effects of government stringency. Average government stringency (Oxford Stringency Index) was calculated in the study period and the preceding period of the pandemic. Potential confounding effects of an age shift in the distribution of deaths were examined by analyzing the distributions of deaths and cases before and after the study period.
Results
Confirmed deaths from COVID-19 in the population over 70 after mass vaccination were recorded as 370, versus 408 expected from applying person-days of vaccine efficacy, and 5,120 estimated without vaccinations.
Conclusions
Vaccines against COVID-19 saved more lives than expected by simply applying individual vaccine efficacy to the vaccinated population in Israel, despite a loosening of government stringency.
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