Modeling COVID-19 epidemic trends and health system needs leading to projections for developing countries: a case study of Thailand

Thailand was the first country outside China to report a COVID-19 case but had a mild impact from the outbreak especially at the beginning of the pandemic. This study systematically investigates the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Thailand from January 2020 to March 2021 to uncover the COVID-19 situation in the country. By modeling all health districts throughout the country, the study found that COVID-19 contributed to an increase in excess deaths and that COVID-19 deaths might be underreported. There was a lag time in ramping up testing although testing is key to control the disease. The estimated total number of beds required by COVID-19 seems low, but it may not ensure the capacity to take care of critical cases that required ICU beds, specific medical equipment, and trained medical staff.