Estimating Active Cases of COVID-19

  1. Javier Álvarez
  2. Carlos Baquero
  3. Elisa Cabana
  4. Jaya Prakash Champati
  5. Antonio Fernández Anta
  6. Davide Frey
  7. Augusto Garcia-Agundez
  8. Chryssis Georgiou
  9. Mathieu Goessens
  10. Harold Hernández
  11. Rosa Lillo
  12. Raquel Menezes
  13. Raúl Moreno
  14. Nicolas Nicolaou
  15. Oluwasegun Ojo
  16. Antonio Ortega
  17. Estrella Rausell
  18. Jesús Rufino
  19. Efstathios Stavrakis
  20. Govind Jeevan
  21. Christin Glorioso
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Abstract

Having accurate and timely data on active COVID-19 cases is challenging, since it depends on the availability of an appropriate infrastructure to perform tests and aggregate their results. In this paper, we consider a case to be active if it is infectious, and we propose methods to estimate the number of active infectious cases of COVID-19 from the official data (of confirmed cases and fatalities) and from public survey data. We show that the latter is a viable option in countries with reduced testing capacity or infrastructures.

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